Democracy, Resilience and Security

The project aims to develop a comprehensive geopolitical and security risk assessment system, establishing a reliable, evidence-based, visualized, and interactive framework and platform for the qualitative and quantitative analysis of ongoing developments. The core of the system consists of 10 regularly updated thematic and sectoral timelines. The data integrated into these timelines is generated through open-source intelligence (OSINT) monitoring, fact-finding investigations, and leaks from reliable sources.

The AIISA comprehensive geopolitical and security risk assessment system comprises three interconnected components:

🗄️ / 🛢️ Database (Event Mapping): The 10 timelines reflect incidents, decisions, and developments occurring at the borders, within the relations, and/or in the relevant sectors of countries having conflictual or confrontational relations within the region, as well as those with a presence in or impact on regional security. The database encompasses both internally and externally oriented developments and factors of all these actors that alter the dynamics of the security environment. The system's search and sorting filters allow the classification of information by timelines, time periods, target or responding countries, and key thematic issues, ensuring the rapid detection of events, developments, security decisions, and their responses, as well as fact-checking and trend identification.

📊 / 📉Charts and Infographics (Data Analysis): Based on a proprietary methodology, the system indexes the intensity (severity) of events included in the timelines and the intentions expressed in stated positions. Time series and charts are constructed based on these indicators, enabling the identification of correlations and the uncovering of causal links between various processes.

🧭 / 📡 Risk Assessment Tables (Forecasting and Modeling): A systematic assessment of the degree of security risks and the probability of their occurrence is conducted through specialized tables structured along sectoral, thematic, and temporal axes.

The analytical outputs generated by the system are aimed at raising public and professional awareness regarding Armenia's security environment. This is achieved through the publication of monthly and annual summary reports on security risks, as well as via open and closed-format discussions involving the expert community, think tanks, civil society, and representatives of relevant state government bodies.

The AIISA sub-grant project is implemented within the framework of the European Union-funded "Sustainable, Impactful, and Inclusive Civil Society (SIICS / ԿԱՆՔ)" project, which is carried out by the Democracy Development Foundation, the "People in Need" NGO (PIN), and the "Boon" Scientific-Cultural Foundation.